Russia –North Korean Ties
Against the backdrop of the ongoing military aggression against Ukraine, Vladimir Putin, the President of Russian Federation visited Pyongyang on June 19, culminating the military agreement between Russia and North Korea, which stands to be the most significant pact signed since the end of Cold War. The actual text of the comprehensive partnership is yet to be released but, the Treaty is said to include a defense provision allowing for the countries to provide military assistance to each other, in case one of them is attacked.
The visit has certainly deepened the ties and co-operation between the two countries and signals at an alarming development in the international community, as both these nations are nuclear powers. Experts suggest that there may be attempts where Russia will try to improve the nuclear capabilities of North Korea. This pact, which was not released has far-reaching capabilities to to affect the power dynamics in East Asia as well as the West.
Historical Context
The history of the Relations between North Korea and Russia can be traced back to 1961. After the Second World War, the erstwhile Soviet Union wanted to install a Communist regime in North Korea and offered military assistance to North Korea’s founder Kim II Sung during the Koren war. In July, 1961 the Russo- North Korean Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual assistance was signed, which contained a mutual defense pact.
The Article 1 of the 1961 treaty lays down that in a situation where the one of the parties faces any armed attack, or is found in a state of war, the other party must immediately extend military and other assistance with all the means to the aggrieved party. It clearly lays down the unconditional and immediate military assistance as well as any other assistance, in case of a state of war. The subsequent articles lay down that the parties will not enter any alliance or partnership that is directed against the other party, common consultancy of the contracting parties, and non-interference in each other’s internal affairs. And lastly that both the parties agree that the unification of Korea should be brought about on a peaceful and democratic basis.One can predict or make expectations about the new treaty based on the 1961 treaty.
Global Consequences
The mutual defense pact will pose a direct security threat for South Korea and Japan, as both of these countries have been concerned about the nuclear capabilities of North Korea. This will likely force the counties to step up and strengthen their defences and security policies in case of any future military development. It is expected that both South Korea and Japan will further deepen their alliance with the US. Similar Alliances and developments are also likely to occur elsewhere, with the West being concerned about the developments in the Middle East where Iran and Russia may come together for a common cause. China which has been an old and traditional ally of North Korea, is likely to be conflicted with Russia’s growing collaboration with North Korea as it is likely to hamper China’s pre-existing geopolitical influence in Pyongyang. Although there has been official response from China, but experts suggest that there maybe a potential loss of influence in China’s case. While the partnership maybe welcomed by Beijing to push back USA’s dominance, on the other hand it maybe a great deal of discomfort for China.
West’s Response
And with regards to the response of the USA, the Spokesperson for the U.S. State Department has said, "Deepening cooperation between Russia and the DPRK is a trend that should be of great concern to anyone interested in maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, upholding the global non-proliferation regime, abiding by UN Security Council resolutions, and supporting the people of Ukraine." South Korea has responded saying that it may consider supplying arms to Ukriane, which so far only has sent humanitarian assistance to Kyiv under a longstanding policy of not supplying weapons to countries engaged in conflict. This marks a major policy shift for Seoul.